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EugeniuszGatnar
AdivergenceofREERULCfromothereffectiveexchangeratemeasurespath
canbeexplainedbyasignificant9almost20%declineintheULCin
manufacturing,i.e.mostexportorientedsector,in2000-2012period.Sucha
decline9especiallycomparedtoover70%increaseinULCintheothersectorof
Polisheconomy9wasattributabletoasteadyandveryfastgrowthinlabor
productivity.Between2000and2012itgrewalmost2.5times,i.e.oversixtimes
morethanintheothersectorsoftheeconomyontheaverage(Figure4).Such
growthinproductivityinPolishmanufacturingsectorwasattributabletoalarge
FDIinflow.In1996-2009theinflowofEUR33blnintothemanufacturingsector
hadbeenrecorded9whichconstitutedforalmost30%oftotalFDIinflowtoPoland.
5.ChangesinPolishexportsstructure
TherearefourmaindriversoftheexternalcompetitivenessofPolisheconomy:
strongFDI’sinflowtoPoland9steadyproductivitygrowthinthePolish
manufacturingsector9regionalaspects9i.e.EUmembershipandtheproximityof
crucialmarketsandhighmobilityandflexibilityofPolishenterprises.
ThenatureofPolishgoodsexportshaschangedprofoundlyoverthelast
decadeasaresultofashiftfrom“traditional”tonewboomingsectors.Indeed9in
theendofthe90sPolishexportswerestillskewedtowardstraditionalindustries
suchastextiles9basicmetals9woodandextractionactivities9andthefollowing
decadesawastrikingchangeinexportspecialization.Vehicles9machineryand
mechanicalappliancesandelectricalandelectronicequipment9the3largestamong
the100two-digitsectorsintermsofexports9representedalmost40%ofPolish
exportsin20119against29%in2000.Incontrast9theshareoftextilesdeclined
substantially9as9forexample9theshareofapparelandaccessoriesalonefellfrom
8.7%to3.2%oftotalgoodsexports.Theshareofmineralfuelsandthatofbasic
metals(copper,ironandsteel)wasreducedbyhalf.
WecanalsodecomposethecurrentaccountbalancebyBroadEconomic
CategoriesasshowninFigure5.Weobservetheincreaseofexportofconsumer
goodsandtheincreaseofimportofcommoditiesandfuels9whichresultedin
CurrentAccountdeficitof16blnEuroin2011.
ThegeographicalpatternofexportshighlightsthepoorcapacityofPolish
producerstoexportoverlongdistances9evenifPolishproductsmighteventually
reachremotemarkets9perhapsaspartsofGermanfinishedgoods.
Since2005PolandisrecordingapositivebalanceoftradewiththeEuropean
Union9whichhassteadilybeenincreasing.ThedeficitintradewithRussiais
resultedfromtheimportofpetroleumandgas(Figure6).
EstimatedbilateraltradeflowsbyBosquetandBoulhol[2009],whichtakeinto
accountthecharacteristicsofcountriesthroughouttheworld9andsuch
determinantsasdistances9borders9coloniallinkagesandfreetradeagreements9
suggestthatPolishexportstoChina9JapanandtheUnitedStates9forexample9
shouldbeaboutfivetimeslargerthantheiractualvalues.Althoughtrueaswellfor
