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EugeniuszGatnar
Thesecondsignificantfactor-marketeffect-hasstronglydependedonboth
theglobalandregional(especiallyeuroareaandCEEC’swithRussia)demandand
itsoverallimpactonexportdynamicswaspositiveintheperiod1999-2011(total
contributiontothegrowthofcumulativemarketshareexceeded4%).More
precisely9geographicaleffectdecreasedstronglythedynamicsofPolishglobal
marketshareintheperiodsafterthefinancialcrisisin2008orRussiancrisisin
1998.Ontheotherhand9aftertheEUaccessionmarketeffectwasacrucialdriver
ofexportmarketsharegrowthintheperiod2005-2006.
Theproductandmixedeffectsseemtobeirrelevantdeterminantsofmarket
shareofPolandintheanalyzedperiod.Toconcludethissection9thestructural
changesinPolishexport(andalsotheworldexport)donotseemtoinfluence
exportmarketshare.Themostimportantfindingcomingfromthispartisthefact
thatcompetitiveness9intermsofCMSAframework9playedacrucialrolein
gainingglobalmarketshare.
4.PriceandcostcompetitivenessofPolisheconomy
intheperiod2000-2012
EUaccessionin20049whichincreasedPoland’sinternationalconfidenceand
encouragedlargerforeigncapitalinflow9resultedinbothNominalEffective
ExchangeRate(NEER)andRealEffectiveExchangeRate(REER)appreciation.
Inthefollowingtwoyears(2005-2006)aperiodofrelativelystableexchange
rateswasobserved.In2007NEERandREERagainstartedtoappreciate9thistime
mostlyduetolargeinterestratedifferentialscomparedwiththeadvanced
economiesandstrongmacroeconomicfundamentalsofthePolisheconomy.Inthe
aggregate9sincethebeginningof2004tillmid-2008NEERappreciatedby50%.
AdeclineinarelativepricedeflatorsgrowthrateslowedtheREERsappreciation
inthatperiod.REERCPIwasstrengthenedby48%andREERPPIby44%.
Theoutburstofglobalfinancialcrisisinmid-2008causedarapiddepreciation
ofnominalexchangerates.NEERwasdepreciatedby25%inthesecondhalfof
2008.SimilardepreciationwasseenincaseofREERCPIandREERPPI.Sucha
largedepreciation9bothnominalandreal9gaveaboostincompetitiveness9which
helpedPolandtoavoidrecessionin2009and2010.
In2009and2010NEER9CPIandPPIdeflatedREERsregainedsomeloses.
However9thezlotyeffectiveexchangeratesremainedmuchweakerthanatthe
dawnoftheglobalfinancialcrisis.
Since2000tillthefirsthalfof2012changesintheREERshadbeenmainly
determinedbythechangesinNEER9astheirfluctuationsinthatperiodwerevery
similar.OnlyREERULCnoticedamarkeddepreciationduringthatperiod(by
over25%),whileNEER,CPIandPPIdeflatedREERslevelsinthefirsthalfof
2012wereveryclosetothoseobservedin2000.REERULCstrongerdepreciation
