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2.1.FertilitypatternsinPoland
2.1.1.Fertility
Chapter2:ThePolishCase
AsinotherEuropeancountries,themostprofounddemographicchangetak-
ingplaceinPolandcurrentlyisfertilitydecline.Thenumberofbirthsfellbyal-
most37%injust15years(from1989to2004,CentralStatisticalOffice2005a,
seealso:Kotowskaetal.2008).Thechangesarevisibleintheperiod,aswellas
incohortindicators.Letusatfirstconsiderthesimpleperiodmeasureoffertility
totalfertilityrate(TFR).InPoland,thesteadydeclinehadalreadystartedinthe
mid-1980s.However,in1989TFRwasstillhighenoughtoallowatleasttheo-
reticallyforthesimplereproductionofgenerations(TFR=2.1).From1990
onwards,thepaceofdeclineincreasedrapidlyanddroppedtoitslowestlevels
withinanexceptionallyshortperiodoftime.Intheyears2004-2005,whenour
studytakesplace,thetotalfertilityrateinPolandwasslightlyover1.2(Figure2.1).
Similarlyprofounddeclinesoccurredinthewholepost-socialistregion.Cur-
rently,theSouthernandCentral-EasternEuropeancountriesreportTFRsofbe-
tween1.2and1.5,whileNorthernandWesterncountriesforma“higher-fertility
belt”ofTFRsofbetween1.7and2.0(FrejkaandSobotka2008).
TotalFertilityRate(TFR)
2.5
1.5
0.5
2
1
0
Poland
Bulgaria
Hungary
Netherlands
The
Spain
Sweden
1980
1990
1995
2000
2004
Figure2.1:TotalFertilityRates.PolandincomparisonwithselectedEuropeancountries,
1980-2004.Source:CouncilofEurope2006.
Thedeclineinthetotalnumberofbirthsisaproductofthreeinterrelated
phenomena:decliningfamilysize,increasingchildlessness,andpostponement