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TheuseofpoliticalriskassessmenttechniquesinJordanianinternationalfirms
27
tileregionswouldusemoresophisticatedtechniquesforpoliticalriskassessment
[Hood2001].
ThreeobstaclesfaceJordanianinternationalfirmsinassessingpoliticalriskus-
ingquantitativetechniques.Thesearelackofsuitabledata,theunreliabilityofeven
apparentlysuitabledataduetopoliticalcensorshipandashortageofdataprocessing
skills.Thesecondoftheseisthemostinterestingfinding.
Nearlyallpreviousempiricalstudiesofpoliticalriskassessmenthavebeenun-
dertakenindeveloped(ieWestern)countries.Althoughnationalstatisticsinallde-
velopedcountriesaresubjecttoacertaindegreeoferror,itisgenerallyacceptedthat
theyareproducedingoodfaith.Moreover,theyaresubjecttocheckingandrevision
onanannualbasis.Jordanisoneofanumberofcountries–bothintheMiddleEast
andelsewhere–whichhasanauthoritariansystemofgovernment.Itisbelieved
widelythatofficialstatisticsaresubjecttopoliticalmanipulationandthattherefore
theycannotbereliedupon.Evenifthisbeliefisunfounded,thefactthatitiswidely
heldmeansthatithasthesameendresult–thepotentialutilityofpoliticalriskas-
sessmenttechniquesisdevalued.
Sincefirmstendtorelymainlyonqualitativetechniques,theattractionofusing
theirquantitativecounterparts,whichcanbefoundintheirpotentialforproviding
detailedassessment,hasnotbeenrealised.Thisdoesnotimply,however,thatquali-
tativetechniquesofPRAareinherentlyinferiortoquantitativeones.Suchaview
(eg.[Waring1996])isunwarrantedandisbasedonafailuretorecognisethatall
politicalriskassessmentsareinherentlyvalue-laden.Politicalriskassessmentiscar-
riedoutbyhumanswhoserationalityhaslimits,especiallywhenoperatingunder
uncertainconditions[Brink2004].Therefore,bothapproachesarevulnerabletobe-
ingaffectedbyideologies,powerrelations,motivationsandattitudes[Plous1993].
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