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Armenia’sMembershipintheEurasianEconomicUnion
Tsarukyan’sbusinessesandallegedillicitactivities.Meanwhile,11ofthe
PAP’s36MPslefttheparliamentaryfaction.
Aspoliceraidedthehomesandbusinesspremisesofanumberof
Tsarukyan’sassociates,Tsarukyancalledfornon-stoprallies,marchesand
demonstrations,aimingatwidespreadcivildisobedienceandSargsyan’s
resignation.AfterconsultationswithleadersoftheANCandtheHeritage
Partyheannouncedademonstrationfor20February.Thiswascancelled
aftertwoArmenianbusinessmenbasedinRussiamediatedameeting
betweenSargsyanandTsarukyanthreedaysbeforetheplannedprotest.
AfterTsarukyan’swithdrawalfromtheprotestmovement,turnoutatthe
ANC’sdemonstrationon1March(theanniversaryofthetragiceventsin
2008,whenpoliceattackeddemonstratorsdemandingarevisionofthe
electionresults,killingten)waslow.TheANCleadershipdecidedtoabstain
fromfurtheractions,mostlikelybecausemassmobilisationwasunlikely,
especiallywithoutTsarukyan’sfinancialresourcesandtelevisionsupport.
Finally,atthePAPcongresson5March,Tsarukyanannouncedhisdecision
toleavethepartyandwithdrawfrompolitics.8
SigningtheEEUTreaty
WhiletherewaslittleinternalresistancetoEEUmembershipdespite
thenon-transparentnatureofthedecision-makinganddubiouspoliticaland
economicconsequencesofmembership,theexternalfactormeantthatthe
processdidnotgoassmoothlyasSargsyanandhiscloseassociatesexpected.
SargsyanmadeanattempttosigntheEEUfoundingtreatyinAstanaon
29May2014.SigningthetreatyatthatpointwouldhavemadeArmenia
afoundingmember,togetherwithBelarus,KazakhstanandRussia,and
accordingtosomeobserverssuchastatusmighthaveresultedinasomehow
privilegedpositionwithintheunion.Thatwasthemostplausiblereasonfor
theswiftpreparationofamembershiproadmap.9Suchanapproachprobably
hadsomegrounds:inNovemberitturnedoutthatArmeniawouldhavethree
delegatesattheEEUintergovernmentalcommissionbutonlyonevote,
8
A.Grigoryan,“Armenia’sRulingPartyConsolidatesPower,”TheCentralAsia-Caucasus
Analyst,vol.17,no.5,March2015,pp.15-17,www.cacianalyst.org.
9
A.Grigoryan,“Armenia:JoiningundertheGun,”in:S.F.Starr,S.E.Cornell(eds.),Putin’s
GrandStrategy:TheEurasianUnionandItsDiscontents,CentralAsia-CaucasusInstitute
&SilkRoadStudiesProgram,Washington,D.C.,2014,p.108.
ThePolishQuarterlyofInternationalAffairs,2015,no.4
11