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ŁUKASZKULESA
WhatFutureforNATOafter2014?
WhentheconceptofthecurrentissueofThePolishQuarterlywas
firstformulated,theendoftheISAFoperationin2014wasuniversally
assumedtobecomethemainpointofreferencefordiscussionsabout
thefutureofNATO.Somearguedthatthealliancewouldbefaced
withanalmostexistentialcrisisoffindingthenextunifyingcauseafter
theendoftheextensiveoutofareadeployments.TheSecretary
Generalspokeeloquentlyabouttheupcomingtransitionfrom
a“deployed”toa“prepared”NATO,butitremainedunclearwhat
exactlythepost-2014allianceshouldbepreparingitselffor.Most
CentralEuropeanscalledforNATOto“comehome”andcultivateits
corecollectivedefencetask,whileothersnotedthatglobal
developmentswouldverysoonforcetheallianceintoinitiatingout
ofareaactionsagain.
ThedevelopmentsinUkraineandtheRussianannexationofCrimea
changedthecontextandtoneofthediscussiondecisively.Theireffect
canbecomparedtoanadrenalineshotappliedtoanexhaustedpatient:
itspurshimimmediatelyintoaction,butnobodyissurehowlongthe
effectwilllastorwhetherornotitwilleventuallybegoodorharmful
tothepatient.Afteraninitialsurprisewiththeboldnessandpace
ofRussianactionsinCrimea,thealliancemanagedtoagreeonaseries
ofemergencymeasurestore-assureitseasternmembersregardingthe
credibilityofthecollectivedefenceguarantees,aswellasthe
suspensionofday-to-daycooperationwithRussia.However,the
fundamentalquestionsstillloomlarge.ShouldNATOfundamentally
re-configureitselftocounterthethreatposedbyRussia?Orshould
itjustmodestlybeefupitsdeterrenceanddefencedimensionwhile
continuingwithitsotheractivities?WouldthepopulationsofNATO
statessupportincreased“militarisation”oftheirforeignpolicy,and
potentialincreasesindefenceexpenditures?Andwhichlessonslearned
fromNATO’sengagementinAfghanistanwouldbeparticularly
valuableinthenewcircumstances?
Informulatinganswerstothesequestions,agoodstartingpoint
wouldbetolookatthecorestrengthsofNATO.Whilemanyexperts,
quitecorrectly,listmanyofthealliance’sshortcomings,isitessential
torememberthecombinationoffactorswhichensurethatNATO
