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Przejdź do opcji czytnikaPrzejdź do nawigacjiPrzejdź do informacjiPrzejdź do stopki
WojciechLorenz
inEuropewereinvitedtotheAlliancebuttheArticle5securityguarantees
werenotsupportedwithacommandandforcestructurenecessarytosecure
thedefenceofthesenewmembers.Theirpotentialvulnerabilitywasinstead
asymboloftrustthatwassupposedtofacilitatecooperationwithRussiaand
turnthatrelationshipintoastrategicpartnership.
Russia’sannexationofCrimeain2014,however,openedanewchapter
inthehistoryoftheAlliance.Bytakingapieceofsovereignterritoryfor
itself,Russiadismantledthepan-Europeanarchitectureofcooperative
security.Russia’sactionswereanopenresorttoblackmailandcoercion
intryingtounderminethecohesionofNATOandtheEUandweakenthe
transatlanticlink—crucialforthecredibilityofU.S.securityguaranteesto
Europe.Russiahasdemonstratedregionalmilitarysupremacywithitsability
torunsuddenoffensiveoperationsandthwartNATOreinforcementstothe
BalticSearegion.Thecapabilities,patternsofbehaviour,andpolitical-
militarymessagingmakeitclearthatRussiaperceivesthepost-Sovietspace
asitssphereofinfluence,wantstomaintainabufferzoneextendingintoEU
andNATOterritory,andattemptstoenforcethecreationofanewsecurity
architecturethatwouldallowittoweighinonthedefenceandsecurity
choicesofsovereignstates.Hence,itcannotbeexcludedthat,forRussia,
thebestwaytoachievethiswouldbebyunderminingthecredibilityofthe
Allianceandmakingitirrelevantasacollectivedefenceorganisation;this
wouldrepresentasignificantstrategicvictoryforRussia.
Atthesametime,instabilityintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricahas
fuelledarefugeecrisisofhistoricalproportions,strainingtheunityofthe
EUandNATOmembersandfurtherenhancingtheterroristthreattothe
internationalcommunity.TheRussianinterventioninSyriainsupportofthe
Assadregimehasaddedanadditionalgeopoliticaldimensiontothecrisis.
AneffectivestrategyfortheresolutionoftheSyrianconflictmayrequire
acompromisebetweentheWestandRussia,withconcessionsextending
beyondSyria.
Todealwithsuchchallenges,NATOneedsastrategicvisionthat
translatesintopoliticalandmilitarycredibilityoftheArticle5guaranteebut
atthesametimemakestheAlliancemorerelevantforitsmembersthatdo
notfeelthreatenedbyRussia.ThereareanumberofareaswhereNATO
willhavetoovercomethelowestcommondenominatortodelivertangible
results.
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ThePolishQuarterlyofInternationalAffairs,2016,no.1